Afghanistan's ''War'' on Opium

Problem Narrative

Opium is a latex extracted from poppy buds and has been used throughout history due to its medicinal and anaesthetic properties.  Today it is mainly used to supply the global market for heroin.  According to the United Nations, Afghanistan is the world’s largest producer of opium providing 90% of the product available (UNODC,2010). 

Afghanistan’s economy is based on two main pillars; "Western aid, in the hopes that the country will renounce Taliban" and "from opium trafficking supported by the Taliban, which use the proceeds to fund attacks on Western troops"(Draper, 2011).  In order to fight drug abuse from the source, various efforts are being made by the local and international authorities in order to reduce the production of opium.  Despite the efforts, the latest Afghanistan Opium Survey shows an increase in production in 2011 over 2010. 

Asian flows of heroin. Source: United Nations World Drug Report 2010,  http://payvand.com/blog/blog/2010/06/24/united-nations-world-drug-report-2010-and-iran/ accessed January 24th 2012

Behaviour over time

Afghanistan has a very long tradition of opium cultivation which dates back hundreds of years.  Recent data shows, however, that the production has experienced a sharp increase.  Opium production rates exhibit an initial increase in the late 1980s and grow exponentially from then onwards. 

This increasing trend was marked by a rapid decline in 2000 when a Taliban ban on opium production was set.  However the production increased over previous figures soon after the ban was lifted. 

Over the past couple of years another declining trend can be observed. Although initially thought to be due to the eradication efforts, it is now attributed to a blight that affected the poppies limiting their production and crop failure due to climatic conditions (UNODC, 2011). So much so, that 2011, has seen a renewed increase in production over 2010 (UNODC, 2011).

Afghanistan opium production as fraction of global production.  Source:  United Nations World Drug Report 2010, http://noagendastats.wordpress.com/2010/08/22/opium-production/ accessed January 24th 2012

Relevance of a systems perspective

Feedback dynamics  The farmers in Afghanistan are struggling to make a living and provide food for their families.  Opium fetches a high price and requires very limited input for a relatively large output making it an ideal crop. Whilst the Taliban encourages this trade since it is a source of financing for their operations, the government wants to eradicate it in order to maximise on international aid.  By increasing eradication programmes, farmers are losing their income and therefore chose to join the Taliban who “takes care” of farmers’ opium crop through corruption.  This therefore reinforces opium production and reduces the eligibility of Afghanistan for international aid in order to develop as a country.

Long time horizon Afghanistan’s economic dependence on poppy cultivation and opium cannot be easily addressed since it requires a national change in attitude and a shift in practices.  Prolonged policy action is required for such trends to change.

Multiple actors and different mental models

Farmers 85% of Afghanistan’s citizens are farmers (Draper, 2011) who depend on non-irrigated land and have little resources of western industrialised agriculture.  The high economic output compared to the low input of the poppy makes it an ideal crop to support the familial needs of farmers.  Furthermore the poppys supply the farmer with seeds for cooking oil and stalks for firewood and ash which is used to make soap (Draper, 2011).

Afghan government The current government aims at increasing the economic growth of the country by empowering the agricultural sector.  This can be done through help flowing in through international aid from the Western world.  This help can however only be brought in with the reduction in poppy cultivation.  Eradication programmes are therefore set in order to regulate the agricultural sector and bringing the infrastructural and economic developments to the region (Draper, 2011).

International Community Taliban’s financial resources are supplied by the opium trafficking trade in Afghanistan.  These resources are then used in order to attack Western military troupes.  By providing aid to farmers in order to veer away from opium production the Taliban;s resources are weakened and therefore become less of a threat.

Taliban Opium trafficking brings in revenue for the organisation and increases the sympathy of local farmers towards the organisation as it brings them increased financial gain.  The eradication programmes set by the government are also leading to an increase in their members and an implied spread of their power stronghold.

Policy debates The success of eradication programmes is being debated since there seem to be other coincidental factors such as crop failure due to disease and climatic conditions which can also attribute to the decline in production.  With the renewed increase in production in 2011, the success of these measures is being put further more into doubt.

Objectives of the study

This study looks into the systems of the current scenario and aims to identify the delays and kinks in the system which are leading to little success and/or failure.  This is done in the hope that new policy structures which work around these challenges can be put forward.

Dynamic Hypothesis 

The poor local farmers are at the heart of the issue.  Whilst struggling with very low standards of development and infrastructure, farmers and their families struggle not only with food supply but also with basic amenities such as roads, health care and technology.  This leads them to trying to make the most out of the little they have.  Cultivating poppy ensures a large pay day when compared to other crops since it requires little effort and has a reduced failure rate.  These hardships therefore lead to the increase in poppy cultivation driven by the lack of infrastructure and high market price of opium.

Farmers' mental model

In order to improve the opportunities within the country the government appeals for international aid.  This aid is intended to go towards the development of Afghan villages in order to improve the standard of living by providing basic amenities and infrastructural facilities.

Government mental model

 Unfortunately an important element in this model is the delay between the promises and the deliverables.  Since international aid takes time to deliver whilst the eradication is immediate, it can easily cause the system to fall back into the old ways since the hardships would not have been dealt with.

Delay between international aid and completion of infrastructure

An increase in the cultivation of poppy results in the increase in revenue of the Taliban who are the main channels of opium trafficking in Afghanistan.  This means that as an unintended cause of the delay in the international aid loop, opium trafficking and Taliban revenue increase further and therefore increase the challenge in fighting opium trade.

The unintended consequence of a delay in receiving international aid

Another unintended consequence is more closely linked to the eradication programmes themselves.  Since the farmers are generally led to the cultivation of poppy through their struggle for survival, the eradication measures are often seen and perceived as a threat to the livelihood of those who depend upon their revenue.  In turn, many enraged farmers turn towards the Taliban for protection and therefore supply an influx of new recruits to the organisation (Draper, 2011.

Unintended consequence of adding Taliban recruits

Overview

The war against opium is not one with an easy solution.  It is a complex system full of social and political dynamics which need to be targeted at the root.  The long tradition of poppy cultivation which amounted to the large contribution of Afghanistan towards the global opium production also shows how deeply rooted the system is.  Since the major problems seems to be a disconnected link between aid and those who need it a more successful strategy would probably be a more decentralised one.  A solution which targets local communities rather than regions as a whole.  Such system would also be more in tune to what the difficulties of the people are and would give more long term solutions to those who want for a better future.

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References

Draper, R. (2011, February). Opium Wars. National Geographic , pp. 58-83.

UNODC. (2011). Afghanistan Opium Survey 2011. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

UNODC. (2010). UNCOD World Drug Report 2010. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

Groundwater Depletion in Malta

Water is an essential need for communities; it is the essence of life and the basis of economic development.

The statement above is seemingly very simple and straight forward however its implications spread wider.  What happens when the water resources are limited? Should water resources be regulated or rationed? If so, how should this be done?  How can social justice and economic development with regards to water be translated into policy?

Malta is a small Island surrounded by sea with a semi-arid almost arid climate and a high density population.  It is also has an expanding economic development with a policy structure aimed towards boosting industry.  This means that due to climate and size limitations, the inflow of water into the resource pool is below what the outflow is. 

The Mental Model

In order to target the increasing water demands the Maltese government invested in the infrastructure needed to tap into the mean sea-level aquifer (Ghyben-Herzberg lens) therefore increasing the supply to balance demands.  However, this inflow was not enough and was later supplemented by the construction of various desalination plants around the Island.  This therefore increased the cost of water, a limiting factor to economic growth.

Regardless of the developing infrastructure, the legislation controlling water use was full of grey areas creating various loop holes including the lack of restrictions when it came to the use of private boreholes.  This legal lacuna led to the propagation of uncontrolled private boreholes which extracted water for agriculture, factory functions, private pools... etc.

The Unintended Consequence

In the process of aiding economic development by turning a blind eye towards private borehole extractions, the existence of the resource itself became compromised.  The uncontrolled extraction of water keeps increasing at an unknown rate degrading the aquifer.  By extracting water at a quicker rate than that of its recharge means that the delicacy of the freshwater lens is further compromised through sea-water intrusion leading to the salinisation of the aquifer.

This unintended consequence occurred mainly due to the lack of knowledge in recharge rates and extraction rates.  The lack of control, which was there in order to aid economic development led the system to run wild, giving warning signals too far down the line for early action to be taken.  Unfortunately the economic growth cycle also become dependent on water as a free resource which complicates the formulation and execution of new policy.

Student Apathy at the University of Malta

University students worldwide have found themselves at the forefront of change for decades.  In history they have rebelled, petitioned, protested and chained themselves in order to stand up for what they believed in, for a better good, for their country.  Unfortunately this sense of enthusiasm and motivation for change is becoming increasingly curbed at University of Malta.  The University has various channels through which students can involve themselves in issues concerning them as a student body as well as the country as whole.  However With over 10,000 attending students it surely comes as a surprise that not enough of these opportunities are recognised or taken by the students.

StudentOrganisations

The University of Malta is also enriched by various student organisations which work towards a great diversity of goals and calls.  Some organisations are academic, others are political, athletic, religious, linked to a particular cause/issue, and others yet bring together people with common hobbies and interests together.  In short, there is an organisation for everyone. 

Yet again, student organisations struggle to find enough people willing to take an active role in the organisation through membership within committees and sub-committees.  Often this struggle extends towards participation in the activities set-up by the few who are active.  This increases de-motivation in those who take an interest and commitment towards fellow students.

The Student’sUnion

Malta’s student union, KSU, is Europe’s oldest, founded in 1901 by a young Arturo Mercieca (later to become Chief Justice) in order to strengthen the voice of the University’s student body.  Mercieca, his colleagues and future council members worked very hard to bring the voice of the younger student generation into matters not only of academia but also national politics.  The challenges were great but today KSU is a very present and active institution both locally and internationally.

KSU has also been having struggles of its own the past few years.  KSU elections used to be a major event on campus followed closely by student and national media and contested by the major political student organisations.  The past decade has seen the retreat of the social democratic students (Pulse), as well as automatic candidate appointment due to lack of contestants.  The voting turn-out of the annual KSU elections has also seen an increasing decline with turn-outs as few as 12%.

StudentRepresentatives

The University’s administration also encourages the input and influence of students in matters which concern them the most.  Posts exclusively reserved for students are available on faculty/institute boards, boards of studies for individual courses as well as the University Council and Senate.  These are very useful posts in order to voice the students’ opinions regarding the studies and administration of the University in particular courses and as a whole.

Yet again most of these posts are left unclaimed by students and even fewer posts are claimed through an election process. 

Factors attributed to this situation are various, amongst which one may find;

• ·         Mistrust in the effects of student representation;
• ·         Diffidence in student activists
• ·         Myths surrounding the system
• ·         Lack of knowledge about the operation protocols of the University and Student Union protocols

The situation keeps degrading year by year and declining election turn-outs as well candidates for the same elections are clear proof that students at the University of Malta care very little to take a stand which is theirs to take.

Introduction

I am a geographer.  That means that I am interested in the world around me, all of it, and not any part in particular.  When I look around me I want to know what there used to be, what there is, why and how, and possibly speculate on how what I can see might change. 

I read geography as an undergrad and I also joined the UMGS, which later led me to become part of EGEA which helped me connect with other geographers in Malta and Europe.  I spent a semester on Erasmus in Modena where I developed a particular interest in gromorphology, geomorphological risk and civil protection.  Apart from geography I took an interest in politics which prompted me to participate in the Malta Youth Parliament and also a debating competition, the Mini European Assembly. 

I am now following a masters in sustainable environmental resource management which combines geographical aspects to their management in policy structures.  This brings me to the purpose of this blog – bringing my work from the course on systems thinking to the web.  I hope that what I will post will be worth reading and discussing!