Afghanistan's ''War'' on Opium

Problem Narrative

Opium is a latex extracted from poppy buds and has been used throughout history due to its medicinal and anaesthetic properties.  Today it is mainly used to supply the global market for heroin.  According to the United Nations, Afghanistan is the world’s largest producer of opium providing 90% of the product available (UNODC,2010). 

Afghanistan’s economy is based on two main pillars; "Western aid, in the hopes that the country will renounce Taliban" and "from opium trafficking supported by the Taliban, which use the proceeds to fund attacks on Western troops"(Draper, 2011).  In order to fight drug abuse from the source, various efforts are being made by the local and international authorities in order to reduce the production of opium.  Despite the efforts, the latest Afghanistan Opium Survey shows an increase in production in 2011 over 2010. 

Asian flows of heroin. Source: United Nations World Drug Report 2010,  http://payvand.com/blog/blog/2010/06/24/united-nations-world-drug-report-2010-and-iran/ accessed January 24th 2012

Behaviour over time

Afghanistan has a very long tradition of opium cultivation which dates back hundreds of years.  Recent data shows, however, that the production has experienced a sharp increase.  Opium production rates exhibit an initial increase in the late 1980s and grow exponentially from then onwards. 

This increasing trend was marked by a rapid decline in 2000 when a Taliban ban on opium production was set.  However the production increased over previous figures soon after the ban was lifted. 

Over the past couple of years another declining trend can be observed. Although initially thought to be due to the eradication efforts, it is now attributed to a blight that affected the poppies limiting their production and crop failure due to climatic conditions (UNODC, 2011). So much so, that 2011, has seen a renewed increase in production over 2010 (UNODC, 2011).

Afghanistan opium production as fraction of global production.  Source:  United Nations World Drug Report 2010, http://noagendastats.wordpress.com/2010/08/22/opium-production/ accessed January 24th 2012

Relevance of a systems perspective

Feedback dynamics  The farmers in Afghanistan are struggling to make a living and provide food for their families.  Opium fetches a high price and requires very limited input for a relatively large output making it an ideal crop. Whilst the Taliban encourages this trade since it is a source of financing for their operations, the government wants to eradicate it in order to maximise on international aid.  By increasing eradication programmes, farmers are losing their income and therefore chose to join the Taliban who “takes care” of farmers’ opium crop through corruption.  This therefore reinforces opium production and reduces the eligibility of Afghanistan for international aid in order to develop as a country.

Long time horizon Afghanistan’s economic dependence on poppy cultivation and opium cannot be easily addressed since it requires a national change in attitude and a shift in practices.  Prolonged policy action is required for such trends to change.

Multiple actors and different mental models

Farmers 85% of Afghanistan’s citizens are farmers (Draper, 2011) who depend on non-irrigated land and have little resources of western industrialised agriculture.  The high economic output compared to the low input of the poppy makes it an ideal crop to support the familial needs of farmers.  Furthermore the poppys supply the farmer with seeds for cooking oil and stalks for firewood and ash which is used to make soap (Draper, 2011).

Afghan government The current government aims at increasing the economic growth of the country by empowering the agricultural sector.  This can be done through help flowing in through international aid from the Western world.  This help can however only be brought in with the reduction in poppy cultivation.  Eradication programmes are therefore set in order to regulate the agricultural sector and bringing the infrastructural and economic developments to the region (Draper, 2011).

International Community Taliban’s financial resources are supplied by the opium trafficking trade in Afghanistan.  These resources are then used in order to attack Western military troupes.  By providing aid to farmers in order to veer away from opium production the Taliban;s resources are weakened and therefore become less of a threat.

Taliban Opium trafficking brings in revenue for the organisation and increases the sympathy of local farmers towards the organisation as it brings them increased financial gain.  The eradication programmes set by the government are also leading to an increase in their members and an implied spread of their power stronghold.

Policy debates The success of eradication programmes is being debated since there seem to be other coincidental factors such as crop failure due to disease and climatic conditions which can also attribute to the decline in production.  With the renewed increase in production in 2011, the success of these measures is being put further more into doubt.

Objectives of the study

This study looks into the systems of the current scenario and aims to identify the delays and kinks in the system which are leading to little success and/or failure.  This is done in the hope that new policy structures which work around these challenges can be put forward.

Dynamic Hypothesis 

The poor local farmers are at the heart of the issue.  Whilst struggling with very low standards of development and infrastructure, farmers and their families struggle not only with food supply but also with basic amenities such as roads, health care and technology.  This leads them to trying to make the most out of the little they have.  Cultivating poppy ensures a large pay day when compared to other crops since it requires little effort and has a reduced failure rate.  These hardships therefore lead to the increase in poppy cultivation driven by the lack of infrastructure and high market price of opium.

Farmers' mental model

In order to improve the opportunities within the country the government appeals for international aid.  This aid is intended to go towards the development of Afghan villages in order to improve the standard of living by providing basic amenities and infrastructural facilities.

Government mental model

 Unfortunately an important element in this model is the delay between the promises and the deliverables.  Since international aid takes time to deliver whilst the eradication is immediate, it can easily cause the system to fall back into the old ways since the hardships would not have been dealt with.

Delay between international aid and completion of infrastructure

An increase in the cultivation of poppy results in the increase in revenue of the Taliban who are the main channels of opium trafficking in Afghanistan.  This means that as an unintended cause of the delay in the international aid loop, opium trafficking and Taliban revenue increase further and therefore increase the challenge in fighting opium trade.

The unintended consequence of a delay in receiving international aid

Another unintended consequence is more closely linked to the eradication programmes themselves.  Since the farmers are generally led to the cultivation of poppy through their struggle for survival, the eradication measures are often seen and perceived as a threat to the livelihood of those who depend upon their revenue.  In turn, many enraged farmers turn towards the Taliban for protection and therefore supply an influx of new recruits to the organisation (Draper, 2011.

Unintended consequence of adding Taliban recruits

Overview

The war against opium is not one with an easy solution.  It is a complex system full of social and political dynamics which need to be targeted at the root.  The long tradition of poppy cultivation which amounted to the large contribution of Afghanistan towards the global opium production also shows how deeply rooted the system is.  Since the major problems seems to be a disconnected link between aid and those who need it a more successful strategy would probably be a more decentralised one.  A solution which targets local communities rather than regions as a whole.  Such system would also be more in tune to what the difficulties of the people are and would give more long term solutions to those who want for a better future.

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References

Draper, R. (2011, February). Opium Wars. National Geographic , pp. 58-83.

UNODC. (2011). Afghanistan Opium Survey 2011. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

UNODC. (2010). UNCOD World Drug Report 2010. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.